Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/336435 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Citation: 
[Journal:] Latin American Journal of Central Banking (LAJCB) [ISSN:] 2666-1438 [Volume:] 6 [Issue:] 4 [Article No.:] 100184 [Year:] 2025 [Pages:] 1-5
Publisher: 
Elsevier, Amsterdam
Abstract: 
I consider a long-term outlook for the U.S. economy. My thesis is that the U.S. has moved from a deflationary regime to an inflationary regime. The shift is associated with China's emergence as a bona fide geopolitical rival to the U.S. and what this geopolitical event implies for the supply and demand for U.S. Treasury securities going forward. U.S. fiscal deficits are likely to remain large. The growth in the global demand for U.S. Treasury securities shows signs of slowing. Together, these forces are likely to exert upward pressure on U.S. inflation and interest rates.
Subjects: 
Demand
Monetary and fiscal Policy
Supply
U.S. treasury securities
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by-nc-nd Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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