Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/336340 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2022
Quellenangabe: 
[Journal:] Latin American Journal of Central Banking (LAJCB) [ISSN:] 2666-1438 [Volume:] 3 [Issue:] 1 [Article No.:] 100047 [Year:] 2022 [Pages:] 1-11
Verlag: 
Elsevier, Amsterdam
Zusammenfassung: 
In this paper, we investigate the growing prominence of credit in the systemic banking crisis prediction literature. Through the application of the signal extraction model and multivariate probit panel regression, we evaluate the performance of the absolute change in credit-to-GDP ratio as an early warning system indicator of systemic banking crises. The findings reveal that the accelerated financialisation of economies turns the excess supply of credit into generating conditions that increase the likelihood of a systemic banking crisis. The findings also indicate that even with persistently low and stable inflation, systemic risk could gradually accumulate through an excessive supply of credit.
Schlagwörter: 
Credit-to-GDP ratio
Systemic banking crisis
Early warning system
Financialisation
JEL: 
E51
E58
F30
G01
O11
O16
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