Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/336306 
Year of Publication: 
2020
Citation: 
[Journal:] Latin American Journal of Central Banking (LAJCB) [ISSN:] 2666-1438 [Volume:] 1 [Issue:] 1/4 [Article No.:] 100020 [Year:] 2020 [Pages:] 1-14
Publisher: 
Elsevier, Amsterdam
Abstract: 
This article contributes to understanding the performance of various unobserved components (UC) models in fitting Barbados' real GDP. Relying on recent UC models techniques, it finds support for the UC model that captures correlated disturbances, but not for the model that does not. The best model is the correlated UC model with two breaks: 1981 and 2008. Estimates show that the trend and cycle innovations are positively correlated. There is evidence suggesting that trend output growth has slowdown in the past decade. The Bayes factor result indicates that the GDP trend is better modeled as a stochastic process rather than a deterministic one.
Subjects: 
Caribbean
Output gap
Trend
Unobserved Component
JEL: 
E31
C11
C15
C22
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by-nc-nd Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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