Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/336222 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Citation: 
[Journal:] Financial Internet Quarterly [ISSN:] 2719-3454 [Volume:] 21 [Issue:] 4 [Year:] 2025 [Pages:] 1-15
Publisher: 
Paradigm Publishing Services, Warsaw
Abstract: 
The aim of the article is to analyze the impact of an unpredictable individual event such as the COVID-19 pandemic on dividend decisions of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Due to the fact that the vast majority of companies do not provide detailed justification for dividend decisions, the analysis was based on a panel probit model with random effects of dividend propensity in the years 1998-2019, which was used to develop forecasts of dividend payments in 2020. The difference between the forecast and the actual dividend decision made by companies in 2020 could be attributed to the uncertainty caused by the pandemic. The analysis covered 152 domestic companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange that paid dividends in 2019 and/or in 2020. The calculations showed that, being uncertain about the future macroeconomic situation and, consequently, about their own, some companies stopped systematic annual dividend payments or significantly reduced their level. The companies made such decisions despite the fact that the forecasts developed on the basis of the probit model, proposed in the paper, indicated that they should pay dividends in 2020, as indicated by their good economic and financial situation.
Subjects: 
COVID-19
Panel Probit Model with Random Effects of Propensity to Pay Dividend
probability of dividend payment
Uncertainty
Warsaw Stock Exchange
JEL: 
G35
C23
C53
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by-nc-nd Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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