Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/334981 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
ECB Working Paper No. 3096
Publisher: 
European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt a. M.
Abstract: 
We introduce a mixed-frequency model that identifies the impact of supply shocks on inflation in the United States in real time. The model decomposes weekly movements in inflation-linked swap rates-market-based inflation expectations-and isolates three supply shocks: global value chain disruptions, energy supply shocks, and domestic supply constraints, separating them from demand-driven factors. We show how these shocks contributed to a post-Covid feedback loop that intensified inflation. By linking weekly shocks to monthly inflation components up to the industry level, we find that global value chain disruptions generate the most persistent and broad-based price pressures, while energy and domestic supply shocks tend to produce more transitory effects, as their narrower inflationary impact is more easily offset by demand-dampening, contractionary forces. Our model captures these various supply-side dynamics effectively and offers timely insights to support a more responsive monetary policy.
Subjects: 
Supply Shocks
Mixed-frequency VAR
Inflation
JEL: 
C54
C58
E31
G12
G15
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
978-92-899-7423-3
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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