Abstract (Translated):
This paper presents the main updates to the Globiom-Brazil model. It is a global interregional trade supply and demand balance model that simulates land use decisions by landowners. Some updates involved methodological issues, such as greater spatial and temporal resolution, the possibility of double cropping (succession of soybean and corn in the same area), the refinement of trade results between regions, and the calculation of emissions and removals. Some general assumptions were also updated, such as internal transportation costs, updating of exogenous drivers, a new land cover and use map for the base year, and validation of the baseline scenario for the historical period simulated by the model. Additionally, some assumptions about the effects of climate change were updated, in particular the consideration of a scenario in which the effects of extreme degree days on agricultural productivity are considered. The results of this new scenario are compared with simulations already carried out in Zilli et al. (2020). Considering the effects of extreme degree days particularly affects grain productivity (soybean and corn) in the tropical regions of the country, which results in a greater need for area. The results found by the model indicate that there is no reduction in the production and export of soybeans, corn, sugarcane, and beef from Brazil. On the contrary: the projected production for these products is higher than those predicted in the simulations by Zilli et al. (2020), but at the cost of allocating a much larger area to these agricultural crops. The effects on other activities are more prominent on the area previously dedicated to livestock, which ends up giving up most of the additional area demanded by agriculture.