Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/323099 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Citation: 
[Journal:] Ekonomika [ISSN:] 2424-6166 [Volume:] 100 [Issue:] 2 [Year:] 2021 [Pages:] 84-100
Publisher: 
Vilnius University Press, Vilnius
Abstract: 
Taking into consideration the specifics of the Russian economy such as dependency on oil and gas drilling & production, and including the current context of the Western sanctions, COVID-19 pandemic, as well as somewhat idiosyncratic potential output development, the main aim of this paper is to quantify recent output gap for Russia. We use three mainstream methodologies: the Hodrick-Prescott filter as a benchmark, the Kalman filter to follow, and the Cobb-Douglas production function. The sample time span ranges from 1995Q1 until 2020Q3, while all calculations are performed on quarterly frequencies. The analysis suggests that given low fixed investment ratios, limited R&D spending in non-military sectors, and adverse demographic development, under a "no policy change" scenario there might soon be even more downward pressures on the country's potential output growth, and the economy may continue increasing only at a snail's pace even after a possible withdrawal of the Western sanctions and the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Subjects: 
Russian economy
potential output
production function
Hodrick-Prescott filtering
Kalman filtering
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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