Zusammenfassung:
Africa has contributed little to Climate Change (CC), though being hardest hit, especially African agriculture, both in the short-run (fast-onset events like droughts and floods) and in the long-run through lower productivity in agriculture (slow-onset events from warming). The paper starts with a template of the dimensions of the trade environment nexus in Africa, then reviews evidence on the role of international trade in helping African countries mitigate and adapt to CC. Much of the focus is on the AfCFTA and on the contribution of the AERC GVC phase II to the state of knowledge. The AERC papers concentrate on the expected effects of reductions in tariffs on the carbon dioxide (CO2) intensity of intra African trade flows, how CO2 emissions will be affected by tariff-induced changes in African trade flows, but also on the longer-term implications of the AfCFTA for the prospects of Africa's transition towards a greener economy. Relying on the recent Resolved Multi-Regional Input-Output (RMRIO) data base on CO2 emissions, the papers cover contours of the CO2 intensity of current import and export baskets across Africa; the exception lists, timing of tariff elimination and implied trajectories of CO2 emissions during implementation for two Regional Economic Communities (RECs) the East African Community (EAC) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Two papers estimate CO2 emissions elasticities to tariff cuts, one for the EAC5 (Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda) for significant exports and main partners, the other for 22 countries covering 50 tradable sectors. The resulting emission elasticities are suggestive of which countries /sectors are likely to become cleaner/dirtier following AfCFTA implementation. A third paper focuses on the role of Global Value Chains (GVCs) on the development, adoption and diffusion of environmental goods using firm-level customs data for Kenya and Malawi. The paper contrasts trade in clean and dirty goods between GVC and non- GVC firms. Being a GVC firm increases the probability of starting to import rather than starting to export green goods. Supply chain trade is essentially a conduit for access to clean technologies. The paper concludes with do's and don'ts for phase I and recommendations on how to mainstream the trade-environment nexus in AcFTA phase II.