Abstract:
Russia's Maternity Capital program, launched in 2007, is a key policy with an obvious pronatalist focus aimed at countering the country's long-term depopulation trend by encouraging families to have more children. Initially, providing financial incentives for second and subsequent births. The program was moderately effective in influencing reproductive decisions within this target group. In 2020, the government revised the Maternity Capital program to include first-born children. This redesign shifted the program's emphasis from promoting higher-order births, which are more likely to raise fertility, to broader poverty reduction among families with children, weakening its demographic effectiveness. This study provides a literature review and demographic analysis to evaluate the program's effectiveness in achieving its stated goals. The data sources include state legislation, strategic demographic and family policy documents, official government reports, peer-reviewed research, and expert opinions. The findings show that while Maternity Capital investments have supported families in improving housing and educational access, the program's limited flexibility, due to its paternalistic design restricting fund usage, may constrain its ability to meet diverse family needs. The study observed short-term increases in fertility. Still, the program alone has proven insufficient to reverse longterm demographic decline. This paper identifies gaps between the policy's intentions and the socioeconomic realities faced by families, offering recommendations to improve the Maternity Capital program to achieve more favourable demographic outcomes and address social protection needs and providing insights for policymakers and researchers from the standpoint of its impacts on family social protection and child well-being. It argues that financial support must be substantial, well-targeted, particularly toward families considering a second or subsequent child, and paired with complementary pro-natalist measures rather than replaced by them.