Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/316544 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2018
Citation: 
[Journal:] East Asian Economic Review (EAER) [ISSN:] 2508-1667 [Volume:] 22 [Issue:] 3 [Year:] 2018 [Pages:] 371-400
Publisher: 
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP), Sejong-si
Abstract: 
Although asset price is an important factor in determining changes in external balances, no studies have investigated it from the Chinese perspective. In this study, I empirically examine the underlying driving forces of China's trade balances, particularly the role of asset price and the real exchange rate. To this end, I estimate a sign-restricted structural vector autoregressive model with quarterly time series data for China, using the Bayesian method. The results show that changes in asset price affect China's trade balances through private consumption and investment. Also, an appreciation of the real exchange rate tends to deteriorate trade balances in China. Furthermore, forecast error variance decomposition results indicate that changes in asset price (stock price and housing price) explain about 20% variability of trade balances, while changes in the real exchange rate can explain about 10%.
Subjects: 
Stock Price
Housing Price
Real Effective Exchange Rate
China Trade Balance
Sign Restriction VAR
JEL: 
C32
F14
F41
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.