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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2018
Quellenangabe: 
[Journal:] East Asian Economic Review (EAER) [ISSN:] 2508-1667 [Volume:] 22 [Issue:] 2 [Year:] 2018 [Pages:] 177-215
Verlag: 
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP), Sejong-si
Zusammenfassung: 
Trump's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and his "America First" trade agenda ignite a second round of interest in mega-free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific. Countries are evaluating alternative trade policy actions in a post-TPP era. Using national real GDP gains estimated by a modified GTAP model to construct "preference ordering" for 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations members and their six regional dialogue partners, this paper comes up with several policy-oriented findings. First, when multilateral agreements are not possible, countries are better off with a regional trading agreement than without one. Second, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is likely to have higher beneficial impacts than the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Third, for dual-track countries, implementing both agreements is better than each separately. Fourth, impacts of open regionalism are likely to be higher than those of a closed and reciprocal one. Going forward, this paper argues that countries should adopt a "multi-track, multi-stage" approach to trade policy.
Schlagwörter: 
Post-TPP
RCEP
CPTPP
FTAAP
CGE Modelling
JEL: 
C68
F13
F50
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