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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2020
Quellenangabe: 
[Journal:] Journal of Applied Economics [ISSN:] 1667-6726 [Volume:] 23 [Issue:] 1 [Year:] 2020 [Pages:] 450-468
Verlag: 
Taylor & Francis, Abingdon
Zusammenfassung: 
In this paper we derive a new model on exchange rate response to a lasting higher interest rate level. Contemporary models do not provide a convincing explanation for this relationship, but recent research suggests that models based on demand-pull effects to be somewhat confined to small funding cost increases. This would make cost-push effects more relevant when the interest rate differential (IRD) is larger and longer-lasting. The new model accounts for cost-push effects and suggests that a persistent higher IRD can evoke multiple responses, including currency depreciation, specialization, inflation, and wage drift. The model suggests that excessive long-lasting IRD can spark a chronic interaction between inflation and currency depreciation. Empirical data substantiate the prediction capability of the new model. We also demonstrate how the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) principle is a special case, which can explain its empirical research anomalies, and when carry trade is a profitable investment strategy.
Schlagwörter: 
monetary policy
carry trade
cash-in-advance
central bank policy
control rates
Exchange rate
exchange rate modeling
factor price equalization
interest rate differential
interest rates
IRD
UIP
uncovered interest rate parity
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