Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/314068 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2019
Citation: 
[Journal:] Journal of Applied Economics [ISSN:] 1667-6726 [Volume:] 22 [Issue:] 1 [Year:] 2019 [Pages:] 437-467
Publisher: 
Taylor & Francis, Abingdon
Abstract: 
This paper analyzes the macroeconomic adjustment in commodity-exporting countries to commodity price shocks. First, I estimate a heterogenous panel SVAR using data from 22 commodity-exporting economies spanning the period 1980-2017. I find that commodity terms of trade shocks are an important driver of business-cycle fluctuations: they explain around 30 percent of movements in output, contrary to the 10 percent found in recent studies. However, there is wide variation in the responses to a commodity terms of trade innovation across countries. Second, I use panel SVARs to study the role of various key country characteristics and economic policies in the macroeconomic response to these shocks. I find evidence that exchange rate flexibility, inflation targeting regimes and fiscal rules help insulate the economy from commodity price movements.
Subjects: 
business cycles
Commodity price shocks
terms of trade
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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