Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/284291 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper No. 940
Publisher: 
Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance, London
Abstract: 
Anscombe and Aumann (1963) offer a definition of subjective probability in terms of comparisons with objective probabilities. That definition - which has provided the basis for much of the succeeding work on subjective probability - presumes that the subjective probability of an event is independent of the prize consequences of that event, a property we term Prize Independence. We design experiments to test Prize Independence and find that a large fraction of our subjects violate it; thus, they do not have subjective probabilities. These findings raise questions about the empirical relevance of much of the literature on subjective probability.
Subjects: 
subjective probability
choice under uncertainty
online experiments
JEL: 
D01
D81
D84
C09
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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