Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/283351 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
Technical Paper No. 07/2023
Publisher: 
Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt a. M.
Abstract: 
This paper focuses on the downside risks to the German residential real estate market. It applies the "at-risk" methodology to the German housing market. Quantile regressions reveal that different quantiles of the house price forecast distribution are heterogeneously affected by the same exogenous variables. While past house prices have a very pronounced impact on the median, variations in interest rates predominantly affect the lower quantiles of the distribution. Other factors, such as employment, affect different quantiles more equally. The at-risk model shows that, in the recent era of high inflation and rising interest rates, the forecast distribution of house prices has shifted to the left, resulting in lower expected growth rates of real house prices. Additionally, we find that sparsely populated districts have more pronounced downside risks than densely populated ones.
Subjects: 
residential real estate
housing
growth-at-risk
quantile regression
Germany
JEL: 
C32
E37
G01
R31
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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