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https://hdl.handle.net/10419/27739
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DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Liesenfeld, Roman | en |
dc.contributor.author | Moura, Guilherme V. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Richard, Jean-François | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2009-08-27 | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2009-09-07T14:31:22Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2009-09-07T14:31:22Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2009 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10419/27739 | - |
dc.description.abstract | We use panel probit models with unobserved heterogeneity, state-dependence and serially correlated errors in order to analyze the determinants and the dynamics of current-account reversals for a panel of developing and emerging countries. The likelihood-based inference of these models requires high-dimensional integration for which we use Efficient Importance Sampling (EIS). Our results suggest that current account balance, terms of trades, foreign reserves and concessional debt are important determinants of current-account reversal. Furthermore, we find strong evidence for serial dependence in the occurrence of reversals. While the likelihood criterion suggest that state-dependence and serially correlated errors are essentially observationally equivalent, measures of predictive performance provide support for the hypothesis that the serial dependence is mainly due to serially correlated country-specific shocks related to local political or macroeconomic events. | en |
dc.language.iso | eng | en |
dc.publisher | |aKiel University, Department of Economics |cKiel | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | |aEconomics Working Paper |x2009-04 | en |
dc.subject.jel | C15 | en |
dc.subject.jel | C23 | en |
dc.subject.jel | C25 | en |
dc.subject.jel | F32 | en |
dc.subject.ddc | 330 | en |
dc.subject.keyword | Panel data | en |
dc.subject.keyword | dynamic discrete choice | en |
dc.subject.keyword | importance sampling | en |
dc.subject.keyword | Monte Carlo integration | en |
dc.subject.keyword | state dependence | en |
dc.subject.keyword | spillover effects | en |
dc.subject.stw | Leistungsbilanz | en |
dc.subject.stw | Zahlungsbilanzungleichgewicht | en |
dc.subject.stw | Terms of Trade | en |
dc.subject.stw | Währungsreserven | en |
dc.subject.stw | Auslandsverschuldung | en |
dc.subject.stw | Schätzung | en |
dc.subject.stw | Panel | en |
dc.subject.stw | Entwicklungsländer | en |
dc.subject.stw | Schwellenländer | en |
dc.title | Determinants and dynamics of current account reversals: an empirical analysis | - |
dc.type | Working Paper | en |
dc.identifier.ppn | 60768688X | en |
dc.rights | http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen | en |
dc.identifier.repec | RePEc:zbw:cauewp:200904 | en |
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