Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/266948 
Year of Publication: 
2020
Citation: 
[Journal:] EconomiA [ISSN:] 1517-7580 [Volume:] 21 [Issue:] 1 [Publisher:] Elsevier [Place:] Amsterdam [Year:] 2020 [Pages:] 38-56
Publisher: 
Elsevier, Amsterdam
Abstract: 
Economic performance increasingly relies on global economic environment due to the growing importance of trade and financial links among countries. This work aims to analyze the possible effects of a potential economic growth downturn or one large negative shock in China, Germany and United States on the growth of other economies. We use a univariate Global autoregressive approach to assess interdependence across 38 countries. We simulate two types of phenomena. The first one is a one time large shock of -2.5 standard deviations. The second experiment simulates the effect of a hypothetical downturn of the aforementioned economies. Our results suggest that the United States play the role of a global economy affecting countries all over the globe whereas Germany and China play an important regional role.
Subjects: 
Economic growth
International linkages
Global autoregressive
JEL: 
C52
F41
F47
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by-nc-nd Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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