Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/258911 
Year of Publication: 
2019
Series/Report no.: 
CEBI Working Paper Series No. 11/19
Publisher: 
University of Copenhagen, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI), Copenhagen
Abstract: 
Using a sample of 2,200 households representative of the US population and a sample of more than 1,000 experts, we measure beliefs about how aggregate unemployment and in ation respond to different macroeconomic shocks. Expert predictions are quantitatively close to standard DSGE models and VAR evidence. While households' beliefs are directionally aligned with those of experts in the case of oil supply shocks and government spending shocks, they predict an opposite reaction of in ation to monetary policy and income tax shocks. A substantial fraction of deviations of household predictions can be explained by the use of a simple affective heuristic.
Subjects: 
Expectation Formation
Subjective Models
Heuristics
Macroeconomic Shocks
Monetary Policy
Fiscal Policy
JEL: 
D83
D84
E31
E52
E71
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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