Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/256992 
Year of Publication: 
2019
Citation: 
[Journal:] Economies [ISSN:] 2227-7099 [Volume:] 7 [Issue:] 2 [Article No.:] 60 [Publisher:] MDPI [Place:] Basel [Year:] 2019 [Pages:] 1-16
Publisher: 
MDPI, Basel
Abstract: 
This paper explores the relationship between export, import, and output for Thailand over the period from 1990 to 2017. The threshold vector autoregressive (VAR) and threshold vector error correction (VEC) models were applied. The empirical evidence confirms that the export-led growth hypothesis is valid, implying feedback within the export-output growth nexus. During business cycles, the export-output characteristics in economic cycles can be classified by the two-threshold VAR and VEC models. These relevant variables converge from the long-run equilibrium. As for the thresholds which are correlated, gross domestic product (GDP) vs. export and GDP vs. import exist as a long-run equilibrium relationship, while there does not seem to be a relationship of export vs. import. Furthermore, a five-year forecast was created (the period of 2018-2022). The export-output growth scenarios appear to swing upward continuously throughout the short-term trend. Therefore, policy-makers should highlight countercyclical macroeconomic policies at lower, medium, and upper regimes to strengthen the state of recovery and encourage the state of short recession.
Subjects: 
non-linear time-series models
export-import pass-through
threshold autoregression
structure break
predictive threshold VAR model
JEL: 
F14
O04
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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