Strauss, Franziska Formayer, Herbert Asamer, Veronika Schmid, Erwin
Diskussionspapier No. DP-48-2010
We have developed climate change data for Austria and the period from 2008 to 2040 with temporal and spatial resolution of one day and one km2 based on historical daily weather station data from 1975 to 2007. Daily data from 34 weather stations have been processed to 60 spatial climate clusters with homogeneous climates relating to mean annual precipitation sums and mean annual temperatures from the period 1961-1990. We have performed regression model analysis to compute a set of daily climate change data for each climate cluster. The integral parts of our regression models are i) the extrapolation of the observed linear temperature trend from 1975 to 2007 using an average national trend of ~0.05 °C per year derived from a homogenized dataset, and ii) the repeated bootstrapping of temperature residuals and of observations for solar radiation, precipitation, relative humidity, and wind to ensure consistent spatial and temporal correlations. The repeated bootstrapping procedure has been performed for all weather parameters based on the observed climate variabilities from the period 1975-2007. To account for a wider range of precipitation patterns, we have also developed precipitation scenarios including higher or lower annual precipitation sums as well as unchanged annual precipitation sums with seasonal redistribution. These precipitation scenarios constitute together with the bootstrapped scenarios of temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind our climate change spectrum for Austria until 2040. These climate change data are freely available and we invite users to apply and comment on our high resolution climate change data.
regional climate change data statistical climate change model uncertainty spectrum temperature trend Austria