Asgharian, Hossein Christiansen, Charlotte Hou, Ai Jun Wang, Weining
Year of Publication:
IRTG 1792 Discussion Paper No. 2020-020
We propose a bivariate component GARCH-MIDAS model to estimate the long- and short-run components of the variances and covariances. The advantage of our model to the existing DCC-based models is that it uses the same form for both the variances and covariances and that it estimates these moments simultaneously. We apply this model to obtain long- and short-run factor betas for industry test portfolios, where the risk factors are the market, SMB, and HML portfolios. We use these betas in cross-sectional analysis of the risk premia. Among other things, we find that the risk premium related to the short- run market beta is significantly positive, irrespective of the choice of test portfolio. Further, the risk premia for the short-run betas of all the risk factors are significant outside recessions.
long-run betas short-run betas risk premia business cycles component GARCH model MIDAS