Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/227918
Authors: 
Çakmaklı, Cem
Demiralp, Selva
Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem
Yeşiltaş, Sevcan
Yıldırım, Muhammed Ali
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper No. 2011
Abstract: 
The COVID-19 crisis can turn into the biggest emerging market (EM) crisis ever. EMs observed the financial shock first, with the tightening global financial conditions. They will soon experience the full wrath of the perfect storm with possibly much larger spill-back effects for the global economy. This paper focuses on a large representative EM, Turkey, with low foreign currency reserves, high foreign currency debt and a questionable record on policy credibility. The pandemic has already led to a substantial decline in economic activity and Turkey's policy options are more limited given its low fiscal space and its reliance on capital flows. We estimate the costs and benefits of a full lockdown and offer policy recommendations that will help to avoid an economic meltdown. In order to prevent a 2001 style crisis, the best option is to consider an immediate lockdown and subsidize the economy. The external funding that is necessary for the economic relief package should be secured through international financial institutions rather than imposing capital controls. Domestic funding should be provided with a well targeted and transparent asset purchase program by the central bank.
Subjects: 
COVID-19
Financial Crisis
SIR
Input-Output Tables
Emerging Markets
JEL: 
E61
F00
C51
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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