Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/223882 
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
IZA Discussion Papers No. 13440
Publisher: 
Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn
Abstract: 
This paper estimates the link between population density and COVID-19 spread and severity in the contiguous United States. To overcome confounding factors, we use two Instrumental Variable (IV) strategies that exploit geological features and historical populations to induce exogenous variation in population density without affecting COVID-19 related deaths directly. We find that density has affected the timing of the outbreak in each county, with denser locations more likely to have an early outbreak. However, we find no evidence that population density is linked with COVID-19 cases and deaths. Using data from Google, Facebook and the US Census, we also investigate several possible mechanisms for our findings. We show that population density can affect the timing of outbreaks through higher connectedness of denser location. Furthermore, we find that population density is positively associated with proxies of social distancing and negatively associated with the age of the population, highlighting the importance of these mediating factors.
Subjects: 
COVID-19
density
congestion forces
JEL: 
I12
R12
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size
3.93 MB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.