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dc.contributor.authorJokisch, Sabineen_US
dc.contributor.authorHalder, Gitteen_US
dc.contributor.authorFehr, Hansen_US
dc.description.abstractAll countries in the European Union stand at the fore of a phenomenal demographic transition. EspeciallyGermany will realize an enormous aging of its population. The reasons for this developmentare twofold: On the one hand, the number of elderly will more than double over the coming decades.On the other hand, since fertility rates are projected to stay at a low level, the number of workersavailable to pay the elderly their government-guaranteed pension and health care benefits will decline.Due to very generous social security systems this aging process is expected to put enormous pressureon future government expenses. To address the consequences of population aging in Germany, thispaper develops a dynamic, intergenerational demographic life-cycle model. The model features immigration,age-specific fertility, life span extension and life span uncertainty. Cohorts within the modeldiffer in their human capital profiles and leave bequests arising from incomplete annuitization. Wealso incorporate the German pension, health care and long-term care system. After introducing thetheoretical model, we simulate the transition path including reforms of the pension system imposedby the so called "Riester" reform and keeping current immigration constant. The results are presentedfor the case of a closed and a small open economy.en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aWürzburg economic papers |x48en_US
dc.subject.keywordDemographic transitionen_US
dc.subject.keywordoverlapping generations (OLG)en_US
dc.subject.keywordcomputable general equilibrium models (CGE)en_US
dc.subject.stwAlternde Bevölkerungen_US
dc.subject.stwOverlapping Generationsen_US
dc.subject.stwAllgemeines Gleichgewichten_US
dc.titleA Simulation Model for the Demographic Transition in Germany : Data Requirements, Model Structure and Calibrationen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US

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