Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/21026 
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dc.contributor.authorFertig, Michaelen
dc.contributor.authorSchmidt, Christoph M.en
dc.date.accessioned2009-01-28T16:18:44Z-
dc.date.available2009-01-28T16:18:44Z-
dc.date.issued2000-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/21026-
dc.description.abstractAssessing the migration potential and predicting future migration streams are among the mostrelevant, yet least well understood topics of migration research. The usual approach taken toaddress aggregate-level prediction problems is to fit ad hoc specifications to historical data, andto extrapolate from these estimates on the basis of conditioning information that is assumed tobe known with certainty. In this context, this strategy faces formidable problems that exceed theusual difficulties arising for the prediction of economic variables. This paper addresses thisextrapolation problem formally, with an application to the case of EU-enlargement and theensuing migration streams to be expected from Eastern Europe.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aInstitute for the Study of Labor (IZA) |cBonnen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aIZA Discussion Papers |x183en
dc.subject.jelJ61en
dc.subject.jelJ11en
dc.subject.jelC23en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordDemographic Structureen
dc.subject.keywordVariance Componentsen
dc.subject.keywordGMMen
dc.subject.stwInternationale Wanderungen
dc.subject.stwMobilitäten
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen
dc.subject.stwBevölkerungsstrukturen
dc.subject.stwMomentenmethodeen
dc.subject.stwEU-Erweiterungen
dc.subject.stwSchätzungen
dc.subject.stwOstmitteleuropaen
dc.subject.stwEinwanderungen
dc.subject.stwDeutschlanden
dc.titleAggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn835301583en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen

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