Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/206961 
Year of Publication: 
2019
Series/Report no.: 
IZA Policy Paper No. 149
Publisher: 
Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn
Abstract: 
Despite record economic growth in the decade that followed the fall of the Taliban regime, poverty remained stubbornly high in Afghanistan, and especially so in regions that suffered less from conflict. This paper aims to explain this puzzle by combining a model of conflict intensity at the province level in 2007−14 with a model of consumption at the household level in 2011. The estimates show that large troop deployments reduced conflict intensity but also boosted local consumption, an effect reinforced by foreign aid flows being larger in conflict-affected areas. Out-of-sample simulations suggest that declining international troops and foreign aid after 2014 would lead to an increase in conflict intensity and a decline in consumption per capita, two trends validated by independent data sources.
Subjects: 
Afghanistan
conflict
poverty
foreign aid
troops
growth
JEL: 
D74
E21
F35
I32
O17
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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