Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/204158 
Year of Publication: 
2013
Series/Report no.: 
wiiw Research Report No. 386
Publisher: 
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw), Vienna
Abstract: 
Conventional econometric analysis using VEC suggests that there is a long-term relationship between nominal world GDP and nominal world exports. The analysis cannot say anything about the causal relationships between the levels of GDP and exports. But it says a lot about the rules governing the short-term adjustments in GDP and exports. When considering such short-term adjustments, GDP plays the first fiddle. Short-term GDP changes have driven short-term changes in world exports, at least over the years 1987-2008. But the short-term changes in world exports did not 'cause' positive short-term changes in GDP.
Subjects: 
world income
world trade
growth
globalization
VEC
Granger causality
JEL: 
F43
F15
O41
O49
Document Type: 
Research Report

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