Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/203601
Authors: 
Bauer, Dominik
Wolff, Irenaeus
Year of Publication: 
2019
Series/Report no.: 
Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2019: 30 Jahre Mauerfall - Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft - Session: Experimental Economics VI No. E06-V1
Abstract: 
Many papers have reported behavioral biases in belief formation that come on top of standard game-theoretic reasoning. We show that the processes involved depend on the way participants reason about their beliefs. When they think about what everybody else or another "unspeci€fied" individual is doing, they exhibit a consensus bias (believing that others are similar to themselves). In contrast, when they think about what their situation-speci€c counterpart is doing, they show ex-post rationalization, under which the reported belief is €‹ed to the action and not vice versa. Our €ndings suggest that there may not be an "innocent" belief-elicitation method that yields unbiased beliefs. However, if we "debias" the reported beliefs using our estimates of the di‚fferent eff‚ects, we €find no more treatment eff‚ect of how we ask for the belief. ‘The "debiasing" exercise shows that not accounting for the biases will typically bias estimates of game-theoretic thinking upwards.
Subjects: 
Belief Elicitation
Belief Formation
Belief-Action Consistency
Framing E‚ffects
Projection
Consensus Eff‚ect
Wishful ‘Thinking
Hindsight Bias
Ex-Post Rationalization
JEL: 
c72
Document Type: 
Conference Paper

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