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Autor:innen: 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2006
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Discussion Paper Series 1 No. 2006,18
Verlag: 
Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt a. M.
Zusammenfassung: 
This paper assesses the performance of monetary indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period since the start of EMU considering a wide range of forecasting models, including standard bivariate forecasting models, factor models, simple combination forecasts as well as trivariate two-pillar Phillips Curve type forecasting models. The results suggest that monetary indicators are still useful indicators for inflation in the euro area, but that a thorough and broad based monetary analysis is needed to extract the information content of monetary developments for future inflation.
Schlagwörter: 
euro area
inflation
leading indicators
money
JEL: 
E31
E40
C32
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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