Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/194340
Authors: 
Mold, Andrew
Mukwaya, Rodgers
Year of Publication: 
2016
Citation: 
[Journal:] Journal of African Trade [ISSN:] 2214-8515 [Volume:] 3 [Year:] 2016 [Issue:] 1/2 [Pages:] 57-84
Abstract: 
This study evaluates the economic impact of the proposed COMESA-SADC-EAC Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) on 26 African countries. It uses the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and database to measure the static effects of the establishment of the TFTA on industrial production, trade flows and consumption in the TFTA. The results indicate a significant increase in intra-regional exports as a result of tariff elimination, boosting intra-regional trade by 29%. Particularly encouraging is the fact that the sectors benefiting most are manufacturing ones, such as light and heavy manufacturing, and processed food. Concerns have been raised that industrial production in the TFTA could concentrate in the countries with highest productivity levels - namely, Egypt and South Africa. Simulation results suggest that these fears are exaggerated, with little evidence of concentration of industries in the larger countries.
Subjects: 
Tripartite free trade area
General equilibrium
Free trade area
Economic integration
JEL: 
F13
F15
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Document Type: 
Article
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