Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/191031 
Year of Publication: 
2012
Citation: 
[Journal:] Investigaciones Europeas de Dirección y Economía de la Empresa (IEDEE) [ISSN:] 1135-2523 [Volume:] 18 [Issue:] 2 [Publisher:] Elsevier [Place:] Amsterdam [Year:] 2012 [Pages:] 148-155
Publisher: 
Elsevier, Amsterdam
Abstract: 
The ongoing globalisation process has not put an end to international financial crises. On the contrary, it seems to have contributed to their appearance and to accentuating their degrees of unpredictability. In this context, the main objective of the present study is to establish whether the values of the best-known and most widely used country risk indexes, namely, the Euromoney index and the International Country Risk Group (ICRG), and the values of their representative variables could have forecasted well in advance the crises that took place between 1994 and 2002, a period which is herein termed the "globalisation era". The results show that, although the selected indexes and their representative variables were able to identify certain vulnerabilities, they could not accurately identify the political, economic, and/or financial factors that developed prior to these crisis episodes.
Subjects: 
globalisation and uncertainty
financial crises forecast
country risk indexes
representative variables
JEL: 
G01
F36
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by-nc-nd Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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