Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/183190
Authors: 
Kremheller, Antonia
Schaefer, Thilo
Year of Publication: 
2018
Series/Report no.: 
IW Policy Paper 15/2018
Abstract: 
In der vorliegenden Studie wird die zukünftige Entwicklung der EEG-Umlage prognostiziert. Für die Berechnung der Umlage werden die zukünftigen Förderkosten, welche sich aus der Diffe-renz der Auszahlungen an die Betreiber der Anlagen und den Einnahmen durch die Vermark-tung des Stroms aus erneuerbaren Energien ergeben, in drei Szenarien abgeschätzt. In einem Szenario werden die Annahmen beziehungsweise geplanten Ausbaupfade der Regierung für die Berechnung berücksichtigt. In zwei weiteren Szenarien werden eher pessimistische oder auch optimistische Annahmen bezüglich der Strompreisentwicklung und weiterer Faktoren ge-troffen. Somit erlaubt der Vergleich der drei Szenarien eine realistische Schätzung für einen Korridor, in dem sich die zukünftigen Kosten bewegen werden. [...]
Abstract (Translated): 
In the present study, the future development of the EEG costs is forecasted. The Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (EEG) is the German law of promoting renewable energies. The expenses from subsidizing renewable plants are apportioned to the German electricity consumers in the form of the EEG-Umlage (EEG reallocation charge). The future costs of subsidizing renewable energy plants, which result from the difference between the payments of the government to the oper-ators and the revenues from feeding electricity from renewable sources into the grid, are esti-mated in three scenarios. The three scenarios show that the peak of the costs of subsidizing renewable energies and thus the peak of the EEG reallocation charge will be reached before 2027. Total annual subsidizing costs will rise until 2022 and decline over time from 2023 on-wards in two of the three scenarios. The reason for the predicted cost decline from 2023 to 2027 is that, as of 2020, old installations, which are relatively expensive, drop out of the funding. Further, the electricity price in those two scenarios is estimated to be higher than the current one, which increases the state's revenue from the renewable energy plants. Those effects are reflected accordingly in the EEG reallocation charge. In the trend scenario, it will rise to 7.8 euro cents in 2021 and fall slightly in the following years until it reaches 7.1 euro cents in 2027. How-ever, due to the large number of parameters and the uncertainty regarding factors like the fu-ture development of electricity demand, no reliable statement can be made on a long forecast period. In particular, the price of electricity is hardly predictable. Nonetheless, it has a major impact on the future level of the EEG reallocation charge.
JEL: 
H23
Q42
Q58
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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