Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/169314
Authors: 
Kuvshinov, Dmitry
Zimmermann, Kaspar
Year of Publication: 
2016
Series/Report no.: 
Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 01/2016
Abstract: 
This paper estimates the cost of sovereign default by using novel econometric methods - dynamic local projections applied to a sample that is re-randomised using inverse propensity score weights. We find that the impact of default on output is negative, significant and persistent - around 2.8% of GDP on impact and 4.8% at peak. The downturn is driven by sharp falls in investment, accompanied by a collapse in gross trade. The cost rises dramatically if the default is followed by a systemic banking crisis, peaking at 9.5% GDP. Our findings suggest that while autarky costs play an important role, sovereign-banking spillovers are central to the cost of default.
Subjects: 
Sovereign default
sovereign debt
banking crises
treatment effects
local projections
inverse propensity score weighting
JEL: 
H63
F34
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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