Universität Trier, Fachbereich IV – Volkswirtschaftslehre, Trier
We assess the efficiency of monetary policy to guide inflation expectations in high and low regimes. Using quantile regression we analyze the persistence of inflation expectations from the Consensus Economics Survey at different quantiles. We find a) empirical evidence that expectations are not anchored in the tails of their distribution and b) robust evidence for structural breaks for the USA and Italy. After the outbreak of the Global Financial crisis expectations become unanchored. The Fed's unconventional monetary policy at the ZLB in thus ineffective in guiding inflation expectations.
inflation expectations persistence monetary policy quantile regressions structural breaks quantile unit root test zero lower bound