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Kooths, Stefan
Hohlfeld, Peter
Horn, Gustav A.
Hüther, Michael
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[Journal:] Wirtschaftsdienst [ISSN:] 1613-978X [Publisher:] Springer [Place:] Heidelberg [Volume:] 94 [Year:] 2014 [Issue:] 12 [Pages:] 847-858
Die Prognosen der Konjunkturexperten für 2014 haben sich als zu optimistisch erwiesen. Eine wesentliche Ursache für die sich ausbreitende Stagnation ist die unsichere weltwirtschaftliche Lage und die gedämpfte Konjunktur im Euroraum. Um die Konjunktur anzukurbeln, werden unterschiedliche Maßnahmen vorgeschlagen: Abkehr von der Austeritätspolitik in Europa, aber auch verbesserte Bedingungen für den Freihandel durch eine Wiederbelebung der WTOVerhandlungen und einen Abschluss der Freihandelsabkommen. Die sehr mäßige Entwicklung des Produktionspotenzials deutet allerdings darauf hin, dass es hier nicht um konjunkturelle Impulse gehen muss, sondern ordnungspolitische Reformen für mehr Wachstum erforderlich sind.
Abstract (Translated): 
The latest economic forecasts have been revised downwards. This correction is not surprising, since earlier optimism was based on the assessment that the crisis in the euro area had been largely overcome. Furthermore, country risks remain high, new geopolitical conflicts have arisen and emerging markets are becoming less dynamic. Conventional monetary policy has reached the limit of its possibilities. It requires a fiscal policy support, but the fiscal pact and other political commitments by governments impose tight constraints. The question arises whether the economy needs only short-run impulses. Some authors state that the long period of stagnation since 2011 is essentially structural. Moderate German GDP fi gures are in line with the poor condition of the country's potential output growth. Thus, launching stimulus programmes would further increase the risk of overheating, as the country would remain exposed to an extremely expansionary monetary environment. Achieving stronger sustainable growth requires structural reforms that strengthen long run productivity progress. The authors are convinced that economic policymakers should realise that Keynesian policies do not work in an environment of supply-side problems.
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