Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/154434 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2017
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
ECB Working Paper No. 2001
Verlag: 
European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt a. M.
Zusammenfassung: 
The response of US inflation to the high levels of spare capacity during the Great Recession of 2007-09 was rather muted. At the same time, it has been argued that the short-term unemployment gap has a more prominent role in determining inflation, and either the closing of this gap or non-linearities in the Phillips curve could lead to a sudden pick-up in inflation. We revisit these issues by estimating Phillips curves over 1992Q1 to 2015Q1. Our main findings suggest that a Phillips curve model that takes into account inflation persistence, inflation expectations, supply shocks and labour market slack as determinants explains rather well the behaviour of inflation after the Great Recession, with little evidence of a "missing deflation puzzle". More important than the choice of the slack measure is the consideration of time-variation in the slope. In fact, we find that Phillips curve models with time-varying slope coefficients are able to outperform significantly the constant-slope model as well as other non-linear models over 2008Q1-2015Q1.
Schlagwörter: 
inflation dynamics
labour market slack
Phillips curve
JEL: 
E31
E37
E58
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
ISBN: 
978-92-899-2723-9
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

Datei(en):
Datei
Größe
753.66 kB





Publikationen in EconStor sind urheberrechtlich geschützt.