Bańbura, Marta Giannone, Domenico Modugno, Michele Reichlin, Lucrezia
Year of Publication:
ECB Working Paper 1564
The term now-casting is a contraction for now and forecasting and has been used for a long-time in meteorology and recently also in economics. In this paper we survey recent developments in economic now-casting with special focus on those models that formalize key features of how market participants and policy makers read macroeconomic data releases in real time, which involves: monitoring many data, forming expectations about them and revising the assessment on the state of the economy whenever realizations diverge sizeably from those expectations. (Prepared for G. Elliott and A. Timmermann, eds., Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Volume 2, Elsevier-North Holland).
macroeconomic forecasting Macroeconomic news mixed frequency real-time data state space models