Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/152931
Authors: 
Pérez, Javier J.
Year of Publication: 
2005
Series/Report no.: 
ECB Working Paper 497
Abstract: 
In this paper I evaluate the usefulness of a set of fiscal indicators as early-warning-signal tools for annual General Government Net Lending developments for some EMU countries (Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Ireland, Austria, Finland) and an EMU aggregate. The indicators are mainly based on monthly and quarterly public accounts’ figures. I illustrate how the dynamics of the indicators show a remarkable performance when anticipating general government accounts’ movements, both in qualitative and in quantitative terms.
Subjects: 
European Monetary Union
Fiscal forecasting and monitoring
General Government Deficit
leading indicators
JEL: 
C53
E6
H6
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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