Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/152516
Authors: 
Hendry, David F.
Clements, Michael P.
Year of Publication: 
2001
Series/Report no.: 
ECB Working Paper 82
Abstract: 
This paper describes some recent advances and contributions to our understanding of economic forecasting. The framework we develop helps explain the findings of forecasting competitions and the prevalence of forecast failure. It constitutes a general theoretical background against which recent results can be judged. We compare this framework to a previous formulation, which was silent on the very issues of most concern to the forecaster. We describe a number of aspects which it illuminates, and draw out the implications for model selection. Finally, we discuss the areas where research remains needed to clarify empirical findings which lack theoretical explanations.
JEL: 
C32
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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