Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/144518 
Year of Publication: 
2016
Series/Report no.: 
DIW Discussion Papers No. 1594
Publisher: 
Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), Berlin
Abstract: 
The financial crisis led to a deep recession in many industrial countries. While large emerging countries recovered relatively quickly from the financial crisis, their performance deteriorated in the last years, despite the modest recovery in advanced economies. The higher divergence of business cycles is closely linked to the Chinese transformation. During the crisis, the Chinese fiscal stimulus prevented a decline in GDP growth not only in that country, but also in resource-rich economies. The Chinese shift to consumption-driven growth led to a decline in commodity demand, and the environment became more challenging for many emerging markets. This view is supported by Bayesian VARs specified for the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) countries. The results reveal a strong impact of international variables on GDP growth. In contrast to the other countries, China plays a crucial role in determining global trade and oil prices. Hence, the change in the Chinese growth strategy puts additional reform pressure on countries with abundant natural resources.
Subjects: 
Business cycle divergence
Chinese transformation
Bayesian VARs
JEL: 
F44
E32
C32
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size
665.48 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.