Cavalcanti, Marco Antônio Freitas de Hollanda Moreira, Ajax Reynaldo Bello
Year of Publication:
Texto para Discussão, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA) 2138
This exercise contributes to the literature that relates macroeconomic cycle with the labor market, estimating an Favar model to Brazil with four variables - degree of utilization, inflation rate, Selic rate and real exchange rate - and a latent variable that summarizes the state of the labor market, which is represented with the odds of being employed, stay employed and remain unemployed in different demographic groups. The shocks - demand, supply, monetary, foreign exchange and social - are identified, using the signal response of a structural macroeconomic model, the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE). The results confirm that the labor market is affected by cycle through the fluctuations of contracts.