Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/114453
Authors: 
Dräger, Lena
Lamla, Michael J.
Year of Publication: 
2015
Series/Report no.: 
KOF Working Papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich 380
Abstract: 
There is a growing interest in studying the disagreement of economic agents. Most studies, however, focus on the disagreement regarding one specific variable, hereby neglecting that disagreement may be comoving with disagreement on other variables. In this paper we explore to which extent disagreement regarding the interest rate is driven by disagreement on inflation and on unemployment. This relationship can be motivated by the existence of the Taylor rule. Using micro survey data for both professional forecasters and consumers, we provide evidence that disagreement on the future interest rate is mainly driven by disagreement on inflation. Exploring further determinants, we confirm that central bank transparency as well as news on money and credit conditions significantly influence disagreement.
Subjects: 
Disagreement
Taylor rule
interest rate expectations
inflation expectations
unemployment expectations
microdata
JEL: 
E31
E58
D84
C33
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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