Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/113223 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2015
Series/Report no.: 
Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2015: Ökonomische Entwicklung - Theorie und Politik - Session: Labor 3 No. C17-V3
Publisher: 
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Abstract: 
This paper analyzes the contribution of flow rates and flow probabilities for unemployment dynamics of different age groups using administrative panel data for Germany. I consider a three-state model and allow for flows from/to inactivity (out of the labor force) to/from unemployment. The dynamics that arise from the inactivity and activity flows account for about 40% of unemployment dynamics (inactivity is more important), while the contribution of separation and job finding is roughly 40% and 20% respectively. Across five age cohorts I find remarkable differences in flow contributions. In the steady state approach the overall contribution of inflow and outflow rates is roughly 50%:50%, but for the non-steady state approach I find a slightly stronger contribution of the outflow rates. I also point out the possibility of a regional aggregation bias that can be of similar importance as the time aggregation bias.
JEL: 
J63
J64
J10
Document Type: 
Conference Paper

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