Pierdzioch, Christian Reitz, Stefan Ruelke, Jan-Christoph
Year of Publication:
FinMaP-Working Paper 29
We use a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model to study nonlinearities in the expectationformation process in the US stock market. To this end, we use data from the Livingston survey to investigate how the importance of regressive and extrapolative expectations fluctuates over time as market conditions summarized by stock-market misalignments and recent returns change. We find that survey participants form stabilizing expectations in the long run. Short-run expectations, in contrast, are consistent with weak mean reversion of stock prices.
Non-linear expectation formation Survey data Stock market Heterogeneous agents