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Title:Trade dynamics in the East Asian miracle: A time series analysis of US-East Asia commodity trade, 1962-1992 PDF Logo
Authors:Carolan, Terrie
Mora, Jesse
Singh, Nirvikar
Issue Date:2012
Series/Report no.:Working Papers, Santa Cruz Institute for International Economics 12-01
Abstract:We examine the composition of bilateral trade between the United States and eight Asian Pacific economies from 1962 to 1992. Two complementary time series analyses of individual commodities at the SITC four-digit level indicate that significant changes occurred in trade composition during this period. We use a measure of normalized trade balances, developed by Gagnon and Rose (1995). For the eight bilateral trade relationships, commodities representing from fifty to seventy percent of 1992 dollar trade have shown statistically significant changes in the magnitude and, in some cases, in the direction of normalized trade balances, over the thirty-year period. Results support the conclusion that changes in trade patterns in both low-tech industries, such as textiles and clothing, and more high-tech industries, such as electronic parts and electronic goods, were important in the development of the East Asian economies.
Subjects:international trade flows
time series
ADF
KPSS
trends
economic development
JEL:F02
F14
F17
O14
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Working Papers, Santa Cruz Institute for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz

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