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https://hdl.handle.net/10419/60541
Kompletter Metadatensatz
DublinCore-Feld | Wert | Sprache |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Chauvet, Marcelle | en |
dc.contributor.author | Potter, Simon | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2012-08-17T14:24:59Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2012-08-17T14:24:59Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2001 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10419/60541 | - |
dc.description.abstract | The U.S. business cycle expansion that started in March 1991 is the longest on record. This paper uses statistical techniques to examine whether this expansion is a onetime unique event or whether its length is a result of a change in the stability of the U.S. economy. Bayesian methods are used to estimate a common factor model that allows for structural breaks in the dynamics of a wide range of macroeconomic variables. We find strong evidence that a reduction in volatility is common to the series examined. Further, the reduction in volatility implies that future expansions will be considerably longer than the historical average. | en |
dc.language.iso | eng | en |
dc.publisher | |aFederal Reserve Bank of New York |cNew York, NY | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | |aStaff Report |x126 | en |
dc.subject.jel | E52 | en |
dc.subject.jel | C53 | en |
dc.subject.ddc | 330 | en |
dc.subject.keyword | Recession | en |
dc.subject.keyword | Common Factor | en |
dc.subject.keyword | Business Cycle | en |
dc.subject.keyword | Bayesian Methods | en |
dc.subject.stw | Konjunktur | en |
dc.subject.stw | Zeitreihenanalyse | en |
dc.subject.stw | Bayes-Statistik | en |
dc.subject.stw | USA | en |
dc.title | Recent changes in the US business cycle | - |
dc.type | Working Paper | en |
dc.identifier.ppn | 331763591 | en |
dc.rights | http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen | en |
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