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dc.contributor.authorSchmidt, Carstenen
dc.contributor.authorWerwatz, Axelen
dc.date.accessioned2012-10-19T10:25:15Z-
dc.date.available2012-10-19T10:25:15Z-
dc.date.issued2002-
dc.identifier.piurn:nbn:de:kobv:11-10048875en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/65357-
dc.description.abstractFor the Euro 2000 Soccer Championships an experimental asset market was condueted, with traders buying and selling contracts on the winners of individual matches. Market-generated probabilities are compared to professional bet quotas, and factors that are responsible for the quality of the market prognosis are identified. The comparison shows, that the market is more accurate than the random predictor and slightly better than professional bet quotas, in the sense of mean square error. Moreover, the more certain the market predicts the outcome of an event the more accurate is the prediction.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aHumboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes |cBerlinen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aSFB 373 Discussion Paper |x2002,29en
dc.subject.jelC93en
dc.subject.jelD4en
dc.subject.jelG1en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordexperimental asset marketsen
dc.subject.keywordprognosisen
dc.subject.keywordmarket efficiencyen
dc.titleHow accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? The Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn726381837en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:sfb373:200229en

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