Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/208261 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2019
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
ECB Working Paper No. 2227
Verlag: 
European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt a. M.
Zusammenfassung: 
The Eurosystem staff forecasts are conditional on the financial markets, the global economy and fiscal policy outlook, and include expert judgement. We develop a multi-country BVAR for the four largest countries of the euro area and we show that it provides accurate conditional forecasts of policy relevant variables such as, for example, consumer prices and GDP. The forecasting accuracy and the ability to mimic the path of the Eurosystem projections suggest that the model is a valid benchmark to assess the consistency of the projections with the conditional assumptions. As such, the BVAR can be used to identify possible sources of judgement, based on the gaps between the Eurosystem projections and the historical regularities captured by the model.
Schlagwörter: 
Multi-country model
cross-checking
conditional forecast
euro area
JEL: 
C52
C53
E37
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
ISBN: 
978-92-899-3489-3
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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