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Title:Merging of opinions under uncertainty PDF Logo
Authors:Bier, Monika
Engelage, Daniel
Issue Date:2010
Series/Report no.:Bonn econ discussion papers 2010,11
Abstract:We consider long-run behavior of agents assessing risk in terms of dynamic convex risk measures or, equivalently, utility in terms of dynamic variational preferences in an uncertain setting. By virtue of a robust representation, we show that all uncertainty is revealed in the limit and agents behave as expected utility maximizer under the true underlying distribution regardless of their initial risk anticipation. In particular, risk assessments of distinct agents converge. This result is a generalization of the fundamental Blackwell-Dubins Theorem, cp. [Blackwell & Dubins, 62], to convex risk. We furthermore show the result to hold in a non-time-consistent environment.
Subjects:Dynamic Convex Risk Measures
Multiple Priors
Uncertainty
Robust Representation
Time-Consistency
Blackwell-Dubins
JEL:C61
C65
D81
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Bonn Econ Discussion Papers, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE), Universität Bonn

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