Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/31012 
Year of Publication: 
2005
Series/Report no.: 
Discussion Paper No. 434
Publisher: 
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Sonderforschungsbereich 386 - Statistische Analyse diskreter Strukturen, München
Abstract: 
In this paper we present a Gibbs sampler for a Poisson model including spatial effects. Frühwirth-Schnatter and Wagner (2004b) show that by data augmentation via the introduction of two sequences of latent variables a Poisson regression model can be transformed into a normal linear model. We show how this methodology can be extended to spatial Poisson regression models and give details of the resulting Gibbs sampler. In particular, the influence of model parameterisation and different update strategies on the mixing of the MCMC chains are discussed. The developed Gibbs samplers are analysed in two simulation studies and applied to model the expected number of claims for policyholders of a German car insurance data set. In general, both large and small simulated spatial effects are estimated accurately by the Gibbs samplers and reasonable low autocorrelations are obtained when the data variability is rather large. However, for data with very low heterogeneity, the autocorrelations resulting from the Gibbs samplers are very high, withdrawing the computational advantage over a Metropolis Hastings independence sampler which exhibits very low autocorrelations in all settings.
Subjects: 
spatial Poisson count data
Gibbs sampler
data augmentation
model parameterisation
block updates
collapsing
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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